EconInsight
Trading Rules Monitor

Rule-Based Market Regime

This page answers one question: based on your rule set, what kind of market are we in and how much total exposure should you allow?

Data as of July 27, 2026

Range:

Current Rule Read

Recommended Max Exposure

40%
based on your macro + overlay + technical stack

Weak tape. Keep sizing lighter and prioritize defense over fresh offense.

RED LIGHTGreenGreen (3/4)State C
Base Technical Zone
20% - 40%
State C
After Overlay
20% - 40%
Green (3/4)
Macro Hard Cap
100%
Green
Current Phase
Recovery
No rate pressure

Current Anchors

Investment Clock
Recovery
Growth: Rising
Inflation: Falling
US 10Y Rate Pressure
38bp
Pressure Off
Hard Risk Gate
Green
Sahm 0.1 | HY 2.79%
Cap 100%
Technical State
State C
S&P 1m: 0.8%
Nasdaq 1m: -4.8%

Weak regime. Defense first, fewer breakouts, smaller sizing.

Trend Matrix

Close-based moving-average checks use a 1% buffer.

S&P 500
Below 20DMA -1%Within 1% of 60DMAAbove 200DMA +1%20DMA Rising
1-month change: 0.8%
Nasdaq 100
Below 20DMA -1%Below 60DMA -1%Above 200DMA +1%20DMA Falling
1-month change: -4.8%

Current Reasons

Investment Clock is Recovery.
Leading overlay is Green (3/4).
Hard risk gate is Green (Claims 4w 207k, HY 2.79%).
State C: Weak regime. Defense first, fewer breakouts, smaller sizing.
S&P 500 vs 60DMA are still inside the 1% close-confirmation buffer, so the system waits for a cleaner break before leaning harder.
Rule-based max exposure is 40%.

Leading Overlay Checks

Initial Jobless Claims
Positive
4w 207,250 vs 13w 211,538
Positive when the 4-week average is not above the 13-week average.
Manufacturing New Orders (YoY)
Positive
+2.3%
Positive when FRED manufacturing new orders are growing year-over-year.
Building Permits
Negative
YoY -1.4%
Positive when the latest YoY reading is at or above 0%.
High Yield Spread
Positive
2.79%
Positive when the spread is below 5%.

Preferred Posture

GrowthTechnologyLeadership stocksBroad growth ETFs

Market History vs Rule-Based Exposure

Hover the chart to inspect the contemporaneous rule stack, risk lights, and max exposure. Technical-state moving-average checks use same-day close confirmation with a 1% buffer.

S&P 500Nasdaq 100Max Exposure
Jul 27, 2026Max 40%State CGreen (3/4)Green
Index Snapshot
S&P 500: 7,413.18
Nasdaq 100: 28,039.21
Rule Stack
Clock: Recovery
Technical: State C
Adjusted: State C
Hard Constraints
Macro cap: 100%
HY spread: 2.79%
Sahm: 0.07

Why The Rule Stack Looked Like This

Weak regime. Defense first, fewer breakouts, smaller sizing.

Weak tape. Keep sizing lighter and prioritize defense over fresh offense.

Investment Clock is Recovery.
Leading overlay is Green (3/4).
Hard risk gate is Green (Claims 4w 207k, HY 2.79%).
State C: Weak regime. Defense first, fewer breakouts, smaller sizing.
S&P 500 vs 60DMA are still inside the 1% close-confirmation buffer, so the system waits for a cleaner break before leaning harder.
Rule-based max exposure is 40%.

Overlay Checks On This Date

These four checks decide whether the early-warning overlay was green, yellow, or red.

Initial Jobless Claims
Positive
4w 207,250 vs 13w 211,538
Positive when the 4-week average is not above the 13-week average.
Manufacturing New Orders (YoY)
Positive
+2.3%
Positive when FRED manufacturing new orders are growing year-over-year.
Building Permits
Negative
YoY -1.4%
Positive when the latest YoY reading is at or above 0%.
High Yield Spread
Positive
2.79%
Positive when the spread is below 5%.