EconInsight
Trading Rules Monitor

Rule-Based Market Regime

This page answers one question: based on your rule set, what kind of market are we in and how much total exposure should you allow?

Data as of June 5, 2026

Range:

Current Rule Read

Recommended Max Exposure

70%
based on your macro + overlay + technical stack

Selective environment. Favor cleaner pullbacks and better-understood themes over broad aggression.

GREEN LIGHTGreenGreen (3/4)State B
Base Technical Zone
40% - 70%
State B
After Overlay
40% - 70%
Green (3/4)
Macro Hard Cap
100%
Green
Current Phase
Recovery
No rate pressure

Current Anchors

Investment Clock
Recovery
Growth: Rising
Inflation: Falling
US 10Y Rate Pressure
32bp
Pressure Off
Hard Risk Gate
Green
Sahm 1.4 | HY 2.74%
Cap 100%
Technical State
State B
S&P 1m: 0.3%
Nasdaq 1m: 1.3%

Mixed / neutral regime. Stay selective and prefer cleaner pullbacks.

Trend Matrix

Close-based moving-average checks use a 1% buffer.

S&P 500
Below 20DMA -1%Above 60DMA +1%Above 200DMA +1%20DMA Rising
1-month change: 0.3%
Nasdaq 100
Below 20DMA -1%Above 60DMA +1%Above 200DMA +1%20DMA Rising
1-month change: 1.3%

Current Reasons

Investment Clock is Recovery.
Leading overlay is Green (3/4).
Hard risk gate is Green (Claims 4w 215k ↑, HY 2.74%).
State B: Mixed / neutral regime. Stay selective and prefer cleaner pullbacks.
Rule-based max exposure is 70%.

Leading Overlay Checks

Initial Jobless Claims
Negative
4w 214,750 vs 13w 209,308
Positive when the 4-week average is not above the 13-week average.
Manufacturing New Orders (YoY)
Positive
+2.1%
Positive when Census Bureau manufacturing new orders are growing year-over-year.
Building Permits
Positive
YoY +0.1%
Positive when the latest YoY reading is at or above 0%.
High Yield Spread
Positive
2.74%
Positive when the spread is below 5%.

Preferred Posture

GrowthTechnologyLeadership stocksBroad growth ETFs

Market History vs Rule-Based Exposure

Hover the chart to inspect the contemporaneous rule stack, risk lights, and max exposure. Technical-state moving-average checks use same-day close confirmation with a 1% buffer.

S&P 500Nasdaq 100Max Exposure
Jun 5, 2026Max 70%State BGreen (3/4)Green
Index Snapshot
S&P 500: 7,383.74
Nasdaq 100: 28,957.6
Rule Stack
Clock: Recovery
Technical: State B
Adjusted: State B
Hard Constraints
Macro cap: 100%
HY spread: 2.74%
Sahm: 1.40

Why The Rule Stack Looked Like This

Mixed / neutral regime. Stay selective and prefer cleaner pullbacks.

Selective environment. Favor cleaner pullbacks and better-understood themes over broad aggression.

Exposure decreased from 100% to 70%.
Technical state moved State A -> State B.
S&P 500 moved confirmed above 20DMA +1% -> confirmed below 20DMA -1%.
Nasdaq 100 moved confirmed above 20DMA +1% -> confirmed below 20DMA -1%.
After overlay adjustment, the technical posture moved State A -> State B.
The technical max band changed 70% - 100% -> 40% - 70%.
Binding constraint changed from technical band (100%) + macro cap (100%) to technical band (70%).
Investment Clock is Recovery.
Leading overlay is Green (3/4).
Hard risk gate is Green (Claims 4w 215k ↑, HY 2.74%).
State B: Mixed / neutral regime. Stay selective and prefer cleaner pullbacks.
Rule-based max exposure is 70%.

Overlay Checks On This Date

These four checks decide whether the early-warning overlay was green, yellow, or red.

Initial Jobless Claims
Negative
4w 214,750 vs 13w 209,308
Positive when the 4-week average is not above the 13-week average.
Manufacturing New Orders (YoY)
Positive
+2.1%
Positive when Census Bureau manufacturing new orders are growing year-over-year.
Building Permits
Positive
YoY +0.1%
Positive when the latest YoY reading is at or above 0%.
High Yield Spread
Positive
2.74%
Positive when the spread is below 5%.